The Lunar Olympic Games

The Imminent Future of Human Spaceflight and What Should We Build First?

There’s a little girl alive somewhere today who doesn’t realize that one day she’s fated to take the whole world’s breath away. In what I expect will be something like a decade, even if she has never been gorgeous before, next to the starkness of her surroundings she’ll emerge onto the world stage to become suddenly radiant. The eyes of mankind will see the night sky outside the dome all around her, the bleak and barren bone-white hills and think: “Inside that dome is life. Outside that dome is death.”

In the sky, where your every intuition expects the moon, is Earth itself.

In the center of a disc of ice, that woman.

This is the first Lunar Olympic Games and the opening event is women’s figure skating.

Why? Well, let’s get to that. Here we will leave the poetic for the mathematical.

The acceleration due to gravity on Earth’s surface is 32 feet per second per second. That means for every second something falls, it starts going 32 feet per second faster. On the moon that acceleration is only 5.31 feet per second per second. Something very close to one-sixth of the gravitational pull of Earth.

What this means for figure skating is… well, to steal a line from a movie, you’ll believe that a woman could fly.

And that’s what the world will see when the music starts and this woman begins to skate.

The average female figure skater jumps something like sixteen inches off the ground during the terrestrial games. On the moon, she will jump 96 inches off the ground, or 8 feet. The distances she’ll travel during those leaps are even crazier. On Earth, she can jump and land something like 20 feet. Already an astounding figure. On the moon, she’ll jump 120 feet or 40 yards, a third the length of a football field.

This first figure skater will be less impressive than those who will come later, primarily because she’s only had about a month to practice. There will be a documentary produced on it later, for all the athletes. Basketball players learning how to dribble again and figuring out new rules for what happens when individual players can jump almost the whole length of the court. Pole Vaulters overcoming the psychological hurdles that, yes, on the moon the goal starts at 100 feet. Weight lifters with an absurd number of plates stacked onto the lifting bar. We won’t be able to play baseball for the first few games. We won’t be able to build a stadium big enough.

In this first event, though, I think the world will watch figure-skating because it’s the most kinetic and dynamic sport I can think of where lower gravity most beautifully alters the ground conditions. More time to leap. More time to spin. The elegance of mathematics write on the human frame.

At the height of the spin, near the end of the routine, she will open her arms and… fly. Not perfectly. This is a big reveal at the end of the routine, where she accesses some change in her suit that creates arm flaps. She doesn’t fly as elegantly as will come later when Lunar flying is its own sport, but she will fly. Or at least glide with incredible grace. Lunar gravity permits human flight so long as someone engineers the wings well. It might take us a while to work all the kinks out.

But you’ll see this, in your lifetime.

Everyone on Earth will watch this game. People in remote villages will gather around a single television to watch. Prisoners in solitary confinement will be allowed to watch it. Lawsuits will demand it. It will be considered too cruel to deny anyone the pleasure of seeing the Lunar Games. There will be record turn-outs in bars and restaurants where the games are played. Families will spend hours watching each event. We’ll talk more about why in the next few sections.

Some of these events will be hilarious, like all the sprint events where none of the normal intuitions map and different body types are best adapted. Some will be harrowing. Imagine Lunar Olympic Fencing, where you’re allowed to simply jump over your opponent. LGJ, or Low Gravity Jiu Jitsu where opponents can easily pick one another up. You’ll have never seen anything like it before and it will be so, so fun.

We’re going to have all of this and we’re going to have it very soon. For the first time in human history, it’s going to be affordable.

THE FINANCIALS OF STARSHIP AND ROCKETRY

Last week, SpaceX’s Starship completed a successful test to recover the booster module. That’s the part of the rocket that shoots out all the big fire at the beginning of a launch. If you didn’t see the event, I’d suggest watching below. Now remember that the object you’re viewing is something like twenty stories tall. It’s incredible!

But as I’ve clicked around on different social media posts, I’ve realized that most people don’t realize the specific reasons this is important. If you’ve ever wanted to know why weird nerds like myself will dive in front of criticisms of Elon Musk, the reasons can basically be explained in two charts.

Source: The NASA budget Wikipedia page.

In this first chart, you can see the NASA budget as a percentage of total government spending. During the height of the Cold War, when we funded all the Apollo missions, NASA made up a staggering 5% of the total Federal budget. That’s what it took to put a man on the moon. Since then, it has normalized at approximately 0.5% of Federal spending.

Source: I used ChatGPT 4o and had it pull all the numbers for me. Ya’ll should really give that thing a whirl.

In this second chart, you can see total cost to orbit of various launch vehicles per pound. It’s not exactly the same, but you we are going to use this as a proxy for the cost of lunar landing. Yes, I know it’s different but I have a newborn so I can’t spend three or four hours right-sizing all of this. The big takeaway is that at the height of the space race it still cost something like $6,300 for the Saturn V to carry anything to orbit.

Why is this the case? Well, if you want to hear an analogy all of your space nerd friends have heard a million times already: imagine if every time somebody took a flight anywhere they had to throw away the whole airplane. Each flight would require the manufacture of a brand new airplane and cost millions upon millions of dollars. Nobody would be able to fly. That’s the situation we have been in with rocketry until SpaceX landed the Orbcomm booster in 2015.

My chart is logarithmic so this might not be obvious to you, but the ability to recover the booster on a rocket like the Falcon 9 basically cut the cost to orbit by 90%. It’s still incredibly expensive but that was already staggering.

A probably not obvious reality of rocketry is that bigger rockets tend to more expensive to build upfront but once you’ve got it working, it’s also much cheaper in terms of cost to orbit.

For Starship, there are a few numbers being thrown around but… well, the cost cutting is astounding. Once the booster and the ship itself can be recovered, which is expected to happen by next year, there are estimates that the cost per pound to orbit will be… $4.50.

So $6,300 per pound to $4.50 per pound. That’s slashing the price by a factor of 1,000.

This is the reason that weird nerds are willing to wake up early in the morning to cram every ounce of nuance into the public conversation of every crazy X post Elon Musk makes. Before SpaceX began this technological journey, absolutely nobody was doing this. Governments had tried it and failed. Corporations never even made the attempt. In the almost ten years since the landing of the Orbcomm booster no other aerospace company has done anything close. Blue Origin, funded by Jeff Bezos, is hoping they can do the same thing but all they’ve done so far is send a ship high up into the air and landed it. That’s not the same thing as orbit, where you have to make a ship go sideways very, very fast.

THE FINANCIALS OF BUILDING AN OLYMPIC STADIUM ON THE MOON

If you want to build an Olympic stadium on the moon, it needs to look really cool. That’s just an axiom of design. Why even do it if it won’t be totally awesome? That means I want to be able to see the moon in the background and the Earth floating in the distance. The best design for this is a geodesic dome.

To build that Geodesic Dome we are going to need lots of steel triangles with aluminum silicate glass like the one pictured above.

You might be saying, Some Guy, how can you possibly project all of these financials with a three week old child when you’re not a total deadbeat and contribute equal childcare with your wife? Well, my friends, let’s turn to ChatGPT 4o for some help.

1. Cost to Manufacture One Triangle

A triangle like the one described would require several key materials and processes. Here’s a rough breakdown:

a) Materials

• Steel Frame: Let’s assume a high-grade stainless steel is needed for the frame (since this must withstand both extreme temperatures and lack of atmosphere on the Moon). The cost of steel, especially aerospace-grade or industrial steel, is about $3 to $5 per pound. Estimating the size of the triangle at around 10 feet per side (common for geodesic dome elements), you could need around 30 to 50 pounds of steel per triangle.

• Estimate: 50 pounds x $4.00/pound = $200 for steel per triangle

• Double-Paned Glass (or Transparent Material): Traditional glass might not suffice due to fragility and weight. A durable, lightweight material like aluminum silicate glass (used in aerospace and smartphones) would be more appropriate. Depending on thickness, this could range between $10 to $20 per square foot. Let’s estimate the surface area of one triangular panel:

• Area of an equilateral triangle with 10-foot sides: A = \frac{\sqrt{3}}{4} \times a^2 = \frac{\sqrt{3}}{4} \times 10^2 \approx 43.3 \, \text{sq ft}

• Estimate: 43.3 sq ft x $15 per square foot = $650 for the glass

• Sealant/Insulation: To maintain the double-paned structure and insulation between layers, you’d likely need a specialized adhesive or sealant. This cost would be minimal compared to steel and glass.

• Estimate: $50 per triangle

• Miscellaneous Parts: Screws, fasteners, and structural reinforcements could add around $30 to $50 per triangle.

b) Manufacturing and Labor Costs

Labor and machining for aerospace-quality elements would include precision cutting, welding, and assembly, which might range between $300 to $500 per triangle, depending on where the triangles are manufactured.

Total Cost Per Triangle

Summing all the materials and labor:

• Steel: $200

• Glass: $650

• Sealant/Miscellaneous: $50

• Labor/Manufacturing: $400 (average)

• Total: Around $1,300 per triangle

2. Number of Triangles for an Olympic-Size Stadium

For geodesic domes, the number of triangles required depends on the dome’s size and frequency (the number of subdivisions in the geodesic pattern). Let’s assume:

• Stadium Dimensions: A standard Olympic stadium is roughly 350 feet long, 250 feet wide, and 150 feet tall.

• Geodesic Dome: For a geodesic dome with a radius of 175 feet (to account for the height of 150 feet and additional space), the surface area can be calculated as:

A_{\text{dome}} = 2\pi R^2 \approx 2 \times 3.14 \times 175^2 = 192,000 \, \text{sq ft}

Now, depending on the resolution or frequency of the dome (let’s assume a medium frequency like a 4V geodesic dome, which balances strength and material efficiency):

• A 4V geodesic dome requires roughly 900 to 1,000 triangles for a surface area of 7,500 square feet (based on standard geodesic dome geometry). For 192,000 square feet, we can scale this by a factor of around 25.

1,000 \, \text{triangles} \times 25 = 25,000 \, \text{triangles required}

3. Total Material Cost for the Dome

With 25,000 triangles required and each triangle costing $1,300:

• Total Material and Manufacturing Cost = $1,300 x 25,000 = $32.5 million

Conclusion:

The approximate cost to manufacture each triangle would be around $1,300, and to build an Olympic-sized geodesic stadium on the Moon, you’d need around 25,000 triangles, resulting in a total manufacturing cost of approximately $32.5 million. The cost to transport these triangles to the Moon would be an additional factor to consider.

Putting it All Together

Each of these triangles would weigh something like 275 pounds. I’m going to skip over thinking about other lighter weight materials like carbon fiber, which could be more expensive to manufacture but lighter weight. That’s too complicated for doing this right now.

So to move each individual piece to the moon we’re going to assume a cost of $10 per pound. Remember, the moon is more expensive than orbit. Let’s say that each piece will cost $2,750 to move to the surface of the moon. For 25,000 triangles that means our transportation costs are going to be… going to just round this up and call it $68,750,000.

So $32.5 million for the materials and about $70 million for the transportation from Earth to the moon. Let’s call it an even $100 million.

THE LUNAR OLYMPIC STADIUM WILL BE BUILT BY TELE-OPERATED ROBOTS

Who is going to build all of this? You can’t just have a bunch of untrained construction workers running around on the surface of the moon. Plus, it’s hard to do stuff in a spacesuit. You don’t want Space OSHA getting on your case. Plus, if you have people doing this it’s going to be expensive as you will need to house and feed them. Introducing, Optimus, the TESLA robot.

This robot can already do teleoperation today. That means that someone in a remote location can wear some sensors and get the robot to mimic their movements. The robot doesn’t have all the tech it needs today to do this solo, so you’re going to hire a bunch of construction workers on Earth to teleoperate the robots on the lunar surface. Then they’re going to have to train to do stuff like account for the 1.3s light delay between the Earth’s surface and the moon. And then carry around mimics of the geodesic triangles to snap to together. It will be a whole weird facility on Earth for people to “pretend” to build a dome so that it ends up being actually built on the moon.

We want this to be easy so all the triangles should snap together like legos and they should have been pre-fabricated on Earth with this in mind. Or you’ll need a robot with rivet gun hands.

I’m sure Optimus isn’t designed to work on the lunar surface right now so it might have to be put into a spacesuit or undergo a redesign. In either case, that’s going to be cheaper than putting a bunch of construction workers on the lunar surface for a year.

I’m going to just make up a number and say you’ll need a crew of 200 people making $100,000 per year to operate 100 robots. I’m assuming an eight hour shift and leaving aside time for the robots to recharge. That means you’re going to have a $20 million manpower cost and let’s say that each robot also costs $200,000 to build and we are just going to ignore the transit costs. That puts us at $40 million total for the construction price.

OTHER RANDOM EXPENSIVE STUFF

You’ll need a lot more than the dome of course. You’ll need the surface you build it on as well. You’ll need life-support systems. You’ll need housing for the staff. You’ll need… more robotic crew.

You’ll need a lunar excavator to dig a bunch of holes. We’re going to do this as cheap as we can. The living quarters need to built below ground. Prefab units that can just be taken off of a starship and then dropped into the hole and covered up. That’s to minimize for exposure to solar flares and cosmic rays. You’ll need these to be airtight, have systems to produce air, and store food. Then you’ll need a bunch of solar panels to keep the whole thing running. You’re going to need a lot. Like a lot a lot. One day, these will be needed to house dignitaries, politicians, extremely wealthy guests, and of course the athletes. This has the added benefit it can function as a space hotel when you’re not having moon games.

Excuse me while I briefly turn this back into a commercial for Chat GPT 4o.

To house 300 people on the lunar surface using a cost-effective approach—burying pressure vessels and powering the system with solar panels—we’ll need to break down the project into several components, while keeping costs in mind. Below is an outline and rough cost estimation for the key elements, excluding launch costs.

1. Pressure Vessels for Habitation

Pressure vessels will act as the main living quarters. These could be prefabricated, modular, cylindrical habitats designed for easy burial. We can use steel or composite materials for durability and space efficiency.

Key Factors:

• Space Needed: Assuming a modest 100 square feet per person, the total area needed would be 30,000 square feet.

• This could be achieved by dividing the space into 15 modules, each around 2,000 square feet (or 40 feet in diameter and 50 feet long, similar to large industrial storage tanks).

Pressure Vessel Design and Cost:

• Material: High-strength steel or carbon composites.

• Cost of Manufacturing: Large steel pressure vessels range from $1 million to $2 million each for a size around 2,000 square feet, given the space-specific requirements for pressure and insulation.

• Total for 15 modules: $15 million - $30 million

2. Excavation and Burying Costs

Using an excavator to dig channels on the lunar surface is feasible. Since there’s no atmosphere and gravity is weaker, excavation equipment will need to be customized to handle lunar regolith. The lunar surface material, while loose, might still be abrasive, and regolith will need to be compacted over the pressure vessels after installation.

Cost Breakdown:

• Excavator: A modified, lightweight lunar-capable excavator could cost around $10 million to $20 million to develop and transport, including modifications for the lunar environment.

• Excavation Time: The cost to operate the excavator can be tied to solar or nuclear power, but the duration of digging (without human labor) would be based on the equipment’s excavation capacity.

• Estimated Cost: $20 million - $30 million for lunar excavation.

3. Solar Power System

Solar panels on the Moon would provide energy for the entire settlement, including life support, heating, and power for the excavation equipment.

Key Factors:

• Power Requirements: For 300 people, you would need energy for lighting, heating, life support, and operational equipment. Assuming a rough estimate of 10 kW per person (to cover all systems), the total requirement would be around 3 MW of power.

• Solar Panel Area: Given that solar power on the Moon has about 1366 W/m² of sunlight, with efficient solar panels (about 20% efficiency), you would need approximately 12,000 square meters of solar panels.

• Cost of Solar Panels: Around $250 per square meter (for advanced, radiation-hardened solar panels for space).

• Total Solar Panel Cost: 12,000 m² x $250/m² = $3 million

Energy Storage: You’ll need energy storage (likely batteries or fuel cells) to provide power during the lunar night (which lasts about 14 Earth days).

• Battery Storage: Assume $200/kWh for lithium-based batteries, and you would need enough storage for around 14 days of power at 3 MW.

• Battery Capacity Needed: 3 MW x 14 days x 24 hours = 1,008,000 kWh.

• Cost of Batteries: 1,008,000 kWh x $200/kWh = $200 million

4. Life Support Systems

You’ll need air recycling, water filtration, heating, and waste management systems for the pressure vessels. The ISS’s life support system (Environmental Control and Life Support System, or ECLSS) costs around $250 million to support a small crew of six, so we can scale this system for 300 people.

Life Support Cost Estimate:

• Scaled System: $500 million - $750 million

5. Miscellaneous and Habitat Furnishing

• Basic furnishings, communication systems, medical equipment, and other operational infrastructure. This could add an additional $50 million - $100 million.

Cost Summary:

Pressure Vessels (15 modules) $15 million - $30 million

Excavator and Excavation $20 million - $30 million

Solar Panels $3 million

Energy Storage (Batteries) $200 million

Life Support Systems $500 million - $750 million

Miscellaneous and Furnishings $50 million - $100 million

Total Cost: $788 million - $1.113 billion

Additional Considerations:

We have to get all of this to the moon and the weight looks to be something like 21 million pounds from another long series of queries I’m not going to copy and paste. So assume it’s going to cost something like $200 million to transport all of this to the lunar surface.

THE FINANCIAL RETURN OF THE LUNAR OLYMPIC STADIUM

So, let’s put all the costs together.

$100 million to build the stadium.

$40 million for construction.

$1.3 billion for all the stuff people are going to need.

Let’s all just write it down to $2 billion because you’ll need to transport athletes and other stuff. I’d also probably double this number just to assume random bullshit like engineers wanting to be paid and things nobody thought of until it was time to actually do it. Let’s also assume that Uncle Sam is going to pay for the landing side for the Starships to offload all of this stuff.

How are you going to make that money back? Lots of different ways are likely.

Pay Per View: The Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao generated 24 million buys and $1.6 billion in revenue. I think there would be at least 10x more interest in watching the Lunar Olympic Games. Call it $16 billion in revenue for the first games. Bars and restaurants are going to be your customers here.

Streaming Rights: If you’re Prime Video, or Netflix, or one of the other streaming companies can you afford to not stream this to your subscribers? They’ll pay a licensing fee for sure. NBC paid $1 billion for the streaming rights to the terrestrial games. I’m going to do the most powerful thing in business and use alliteration to generate revenue. We’re going to use the Moon Multiple of 10x and say that this is going to cost $10 billion per year for streaming rights. Why? It’s the flipping Moon Multiple, are you an idiot? Did you go to business school? Do you not know about the flipping Moon Multiple? Jesus. How embarrassing.

Sponsorships: How about the Toyota Sienna or the Tesla Model X brought to you by the flipping Lunar Olympics? This is a license to print money. The Super Bowl generated $600 million in total ad spend, but we’re goign to apply the Moon Multiple. You learn about the Moon Multiple in Business 101. The Lunar Olympics will generate $6 billion per event in ad revenue.

In short, the Lunar Olympics would generate $32 billion in revenue per year. This doesn’t count using the lunar hotel in the off season to help companies start moon mining business, moon gambling, moon churches, etc.

If you enjoyed this article, please share it on social media so we can meme the Lunar Olympic Games into existence.